A-Level Business: Decision Trees, the New Musical or the Safe Tour?

Students complete a decision tree for a small theatre, compare expected values with the best and worst results, test a lower probability and weigh the mission against the numbers.

What students do

• Match risk, reward and opportunity cost to their meanings
• Complete a decision tree with expected revenue and net gain for two productions
• Compare expected values with the best and worst actual results, then test a lower probability of success
• In groups of three, weigh the theatre’s mission, objectives and resources and recommend one option

What the teacher gets

• A lesson plan for about 55 minutes of tasks, with a shorter 45-minute version. Allow longer in the timetable for handing out and feedback
• The completed tree and worked answers for every calculation, including the tipping probability
• Indicative guidance for the written recommendation. It is not an AQA mark scheme and carries no marks or grades
• Editable Word versions of both files, so you can change the case or the figures

Specification

AQA A-level Business (7132), section 3.2.2 Understanding management decision making: decision trees, expected value and net gains, risk, reward, uncertainty and opportunity cost, and influences on decisions such as mission, objectives and resource constraints. Checked against the AQA specification, Version 2.0, 14 June 2023. For classes taking 7132 exams in 2027, not the new 7138. The theatre and every figure are fictional and the questions are original. This is not an AQA resource, and the lesson has not yet been tested in a classroom.